NFL playoff races and other musings

Here are the predictions following the week 1 games.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New England	90.98	7.18	1.7	0.14
NY Jets	3.74	40.58	34.16	21.52
Miami	3.74	35.54	35.36	25.36
Buffalo	1.54	16.7	28.78	52.98

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Cincinnati	45.22	31.5	20.38	2.9
Pittsburgh	32.48	34.68	29.16	3.68
Baltimore	21.52	30.82	38.22	9.44
Cleveland	0.78	3.0	12.24	83.98

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Indianapolis	75.86	16.96	5.66	1.52
Tennessee	10.36	34.46	31.9	23.28
Jacksonville	8.88	29.08	33.4	28.64
Houston	4.9	19.5	29.04	46.56

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Diego	57.84	33.72	7.62	0.82
Denver	36.94	47.54	13.98	1.54
Kansas City	4.76	16.5	60.32	18.42
Oakland	0.46	2.24	18.08	79.22

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Dallas	53.36	24.48	14.88	7.28
Philadelphia	18.54	27.02	28.66	25.78
Washington	17.82	26.46	27.22	28.5
NY Giants	10.28	22.04	29.24	38.44

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Chicago	53.58	26.62	13.62	6.18
Green Bay	23.56	31.02	25.48	19.94
Minnesota	12.32	22.48	30.34	34.86
Detroit	10.54	19.88	30.56	39.02

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Carolina	41.72	31.08	19.04	8.16
New Orleans	36.56	32.94	21.48	9.02
Atlanta	17.4	24.62	34.78	23.2
Tampa Bay	4.32	11.36	24.7	59.62

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Seattle	48.14	28.38	15.4	8.08
San Francisco	33.2	31.92	23.5	11.38
Arizona	9.08	19.66	31.5	39.76
St Louis	9.58	20.04	29.6	40.78

Generated: Tue Sep 11 01:12:09 EDT 2007

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
New England	28.3	21.36	20.06	21.26	1.28	1.72	93.98
Indianapolis	19.9	18.34	18.52	19.1	4.18	4.34	84.38
San Diego	17.9	17.0	12.64	10.3	14.12	8.42	80.38
Cincinnati	10.74	12.7	12.02	9.76	12.44	11.04	68.7
Denver	10.98	10.42	8.72	6.82	21.34	12.34	70.62
Pittsburgh	5.94	8.3	9.84	8.4	12.02	12.62	57.12
Baltimore	3.22	5.4	6.68	6.22	11.04	12.42	44.98
Tennessee	0.8	1.88	3.12	4.56	4.9	7.06	22.32
Jacksonville	0.66	1.32	2.86	4.04	4.38	6.92	20.18
Kansas City	0.44	0.94	1.5	1.88	4.1	5.9	14.76
Miami	0.44	0.52	0.92	1.86	2.86	4.44	11.04
Houston	0.3	0.84	1.4	2.36	2.52	3.84	11.26
NY Jets	0.3	0.7	1.08	1.66	3.62	5.8	13.16
Buffalo	0.04	0.12	0.34	1.04	0.48	1.2	3.22
Cleveland	0.04	0.08	0.2	0.46	0.38	1.1	2.26
Oakland	0.0	0.08	0.1	0.28	0.34	0.84	1.64

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Dallas	23.24	14.7	9.72	5.7	11.62	7.32	72.3
Chicago	16.02	14.08	13.28	10.2	6.46	6.52	66.56
Carolina	12.7	12.0	10.54	6.48	9.36	7.9	58.98
New Orleans	9.84	9.3	9.92	7.5	9.3	8.36	54.22
Seattle	7.86	10.86	11.82	17.6	3.84	5.2	57.18
Philadelphia	5.7	5.06	4.58	3.2	10.2	9.78	38.52
Washington	5.06	5.44	4.18	3.14	10.6	9.22	37.64
Green Bay	4.78	5.68	6.88	6.22	7.18	7.36	38.1
San Francisco	4.42	6.56	8.3	13.92	4.22	5.56	42.98
Atlanta	3.02	4.3	5.16	4.92	5.26	6.3	28.96
NY Giants	2.56	3.2	2.5	2.02	9.38	8.38	28.04
Minnesota	1.64	2.86	4.0	3.82	4.54	5.76	22.62
Detroit	1.34	2.62	2.8	3.78	3.62	4.48	18.64
Arizona	0.72	1.38	2.68	4.3	1.78	2.86	13.72
St Louis	0.56	1.24	2.58	5.2	1.22	2.26	13.06
Tampa Bay	0.54	0.72	1.06	2.0	1.42	2.74	8.48

Generated: Tue Sep 11 01:12:09 EDT 2007

This entry was posted on Tuesday, September 11th, 2007 at 7:04 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.