NFL playoff races and other musings

Here are this week’s playoff predictions. If you’re a fan of one of the five 7-5 AFC teams or one of the four 6-6 NFC teams, you’ll want to try out the software this week if you haven’t already done so. There are lots and lots of scenarios to analyze and my software automatically analyzes all the tiebreakers for you. It’s playoff madness!

Tomorrow, I’ll post a graphical week-by-week comparison of my forecasts and the DVOA forecasts, starting from week 9 until now.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New England	85.82	14.18	0.0	0.0
NY Jets	14.18	79.94	5.72	0.16
Buffalo	0.0	4.2	52.86	42.94
Miami	0.0	1.68	41.42	56.9

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Baltimore	90.06	9.8	0.14	0.0
Cincinnati	9.82	86.7	3.46	0.02
Pittsburgh	0.12	3.38	73.04	23.46
Cleveland	0.0	0.12	23.36	76.52

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Indianapolis	99.38	0.62	0.0	0.0
Jacksonville	0.62	80.26	18.08	1.04
Tennessee	0.0	17.48	59.12	23.4
Houston	0.0	1.64	22.8	75.56

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Diego	94.58	4.54	0.88	0.0
Denver	3.16	51.08	45.76	0.0
Kansas City	2.26	44.38	53.36	0.0
Oakland	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Dallas	87.18	10.88	1.9	0.04
NY Giants	5.82	58.76	31.64	3.78
Philadelphia	6.98	27.56	48.72	16.74
Washington	0.02	2.8	17.74	79.44

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Chicago	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Minnesota	0.0	68.6	30.24	1.16
Green Bay	0.0	31.14	65.96	2.9
Detroit	0.0	0.26	3.8	95.94

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New Orleans	86.5	11.12	2.38	0.0
Atlanta	3.74	53.52	42.54	0.2
Carolina	9.76	35.36	54.82	0.06
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.0	0.26	99.74

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Seattle	97.98	1.9	0.12	0.0
St Louis	0.22	38.86	57.48	3.44
San Francisco	1.8	57.32	35.14	5.74
Arizona	0.0	1.92	7.26	90.82

Generated: Tue Dec 05 00:20:05 EST 2006

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Indianapolis	47.86	34.56	11.76	5.2	0.3	0.22	99.9
San Diego	41.5	30.56	17.6	4.92	4.22	0.98	99.78
Baltimore	7.3	21.14	37.78	23.84	3.8	2.74	96.6
New England	3.2	11.9	26.52	44.2	6.36	3.76	95.94
Denver	0.08	0.82	1.4	0.86	29.22	18.36	50.74
Cincinnati	0.04	0.56	1.72	7.5	22.3	20.68	52.8
Kansas City	0.0	0.32	0.94	1.0	8.92	14.42	25.6
NY Jets	0.0	0.04	2.0	12.14	14.38	22.02	50.58
Jacksonville	0.02	0.1	0.28	0.22	10.36	15.6	26.58
Pittsburgh	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.12	0.0	0.28	0.4
Buffalo	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.06	0.52	0.58
Tennessee	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.06	0.24	0.3
Miami	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.12	0.14
Houston	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.04	0.04
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.02
Oakland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Chicago	96.22	3.46	0.3	0.02	0.0	0.0	100.0
New Orleans	2.8	35.54	25.2	22.96	6.9	3.88	97.28
Dallas	0.46	30.94	29.46	26.32	6.92	3.62	97.72
Seattle	0.52	28.6	38.08	30.78	0.58	0.48	99.04
NY Giants	0.0	0.78	1.46	3.58	25.82	18.54	50.18
Philadelphia	0.0	0.26	2.32	4.4	15.22	18.2	40.4
Carolina	0.0	0.18	1.68	7.9	12.48	15.04	37.28
Atlanta	0.0	0.24	1.32	2.18	23.36	17.06	44.16
San Francisco	0.0	0.0	0.16	1.64	1.16	4.42	7.38
Minnesota	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6.12	12.22	18.34
St Louis	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.2	1.08	4.48	5.78
Washington	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.34	1.52	1.88
Green Bay	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.54	0.56
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Arizona	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Generated: Tue Dec 05 00:20:05 EST 2006

This entry was posted on Tuesday, December 5th, 2006 at 1:36 am and is filed under Articles, Weeky Predictions. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.