Things crystalized quite a bit in week 12. We now have a very good idea of 5 of the playoff teams in each conference, although Denver and the Giants are still a little squishy, both in their computer generated playoff odds and in their on the field play. So in each conference we have one, maybe two, playoff spots up from grabs. Those last slots probably won’t be firmed up until the last week of the season. Plus the teams that are likely playoff qualifiers are still slugging it out for seeding positions that yield home field advantage and first round byes.
Edited to correct data entry error
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| New England | 88.64 | 11.1 | 0.26 | 0.0 |
| NY Jets | 11.04 | 67.84 | 17.52 | 3.6 |
| Buffalo | 0.18 | 13.28 | 51.44 | 35.1 |
| Miami | 0.14 | 7.78 | 30.78 | 61.3 |
AFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Baltimore | 95.08 | 4.92 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cincinnati | 4.9 | 90.74 | 4.32 | 0.04 |
| Pittsburgh | 0.02 | 4.12 | 74.04 | 21.82 |
| Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.22 | 21.64 | 78.14 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Indianapolis | 99.94 | 0.06 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Jacksonville | 0.06 | 81.1 | 16.38 | 2.46 |
| Tennessee | 0.0 | 14.76 | 51.32 | 33.92 |
| Houston | 0.0 | 4.08 | 32.3 | 63.62 |
AFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| San Diego | 80.76 | 14.82 | 4.42 | 0.0 |
| Denver | 11.44 | 45.82 | 42.74 | 0.0 |
| Kansas City | 7.8 | 39.36 | 52.84 | 0.0 |
| Oakland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
NFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Dallas | 72.06 | 22.9 | 4.4 | 0.64 |
| NY Giants | 24.22 | 58.34 | 14.4 | 3.04 |
| Philadelphia | 3.24 | 13.14 | 48.2 | 35.42 |
| Washington | 0.48 | 5.62 | 33.0 | 60.9 |
NFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Chicago | 99.94 | 0.06 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Minnesota | 0.06 | 61.8 | 36.24 | 1.9 |
| Green Bay | 0.0 | 37.62 | 58.94 | 3.44 |
| Detroit | 0.0 | 0.52 | 4.82 | 94.66 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| New Orleans | 67.62 | 30.42 | 1.96 | 0.0 |
| Carolina | 30.66 | 48.5 | 20.68 | 0.16 |
| Atlanta | 1.72 | 20.98 | 72.46 | 4.84 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.0 | 0.1 | 4.9 | 95.0 |
NFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Seattle | 79.98 | 16.28 | 3.74 | 0.0 |
| St Louis | 5.3 | 47.44 | 46.54 | 0.72 |
| San Francisco | 14.72 | 36.1 | 48.12 | 1.06 |
| Arizona | 0.0 | 0.18 | 1.6 | 98.22 |
Generated: Mon Dec 04 21:24:30 EST 2006
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| Indianapolis | 67.96 | 20.16 | 9.08 | 2.74 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 99.98 |
| San Diego | 16.48 | 28.86 | 27.78 | 7.64 | 13.58 | 3.98 | 98.32 |
| Baltimore | 13.04 | 34.74 | 31.04 | 16.26 | 1.5 | 1.52 | 98.1 |
| New England | 1.98 | 9.5 | 23.0 | 54.16 | 2.6 | 3.22 | 94.46 |
| Denver | 0.4 | 4.54 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 35.0 | 24.12 | 70.56 |
| Kansas City | 0.1 | 1.84 | 2.4 | 3.46 | 19.92 | 19.2 | 46.92 |
| Cincinnati | 0.04 | 0.3 | 0.94 | 3.62 | 12.3 | 15.92 | 33.12 |
| NY Jets | 0.0 | 0.06 | 1.2 | 9.78 | 8.1 | 16.66 | 35.8 |
| Jacksonville | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.06 | 0.0 | 5.06 | 9.72 | 14.84 |
| Buffalo | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.18 | 1.38 | 3.26 | 4.82 |
| Miami | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.14 | 0.54 | 2.06 | 2.74 |
| Pittsburgh | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.02 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.22 |
| Tennessee | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Houston | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Oakland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| Chicago | 93.44 | 5.32 | 0.98 | 0.2 | 0.04 | 0.0 | 99.98 |
| New Orleans | 4.28 | 24.36 | 23.76 | 15.22 | 13.62 | 7.82 | 89.06 |
| Dallas | 1.26 | 36.38 | 19.68 | 14.74 | 12.74 | 6.6 | 91.4 |
| Seattle | 0.66 | 19.74 | 29.46 | 30.12 | 4.2 | 5.16 | 89.34 |
| NY Giants | 0.26 | 7.8 | 7.36 | 8.8 | 22.72 | 17.44 | 64.38 |
| Carolina | 0.04 | 4.64 | 11.04 | 14.94 | 18.04 | 12.9 | 61.6 |
| San Francisco | 0.0 | 0.64 | 4.9 | 9.18 | 3.62 | 7.1 | 25.44 |
| Philadelphia | 0.02 | 0.52 | 1.36 | 1.34 | 4.78 | 9.24 | 17.26 |
| St Louis | 0.02 | 0.42 | 1.02 | 3.84 | 7.28 | 13.74 | 26.32 |
| Minnesota | 0.02 | 0.0 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 7.16 | 10.82 | 18.04 |
| Atlanta | 0.0 | 0.14 | 0.32 | 1.26 | 3.94 | 4.82 | 10.48 |
| Washington | 0.0 | 0.04 | 0.1 | 0.34 | 1.68 | 3.32 | 5.48 |
| Green Bay | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.18 | 1.0 | 1.18 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Detroit | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Arizona | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Generated: Mon Dec 04 21:24:29 EST 2006
One of the interesting experiments I did was assume that both DEN & KC lose their upcoming games @ SD but otherwise win-out. Under those assumptions, I found that KC has the better chance of making the playoffs than DEN. I can’t recall more details with certainty, but I think KC’s odds of making the playoffs given exactly 1 loss to SD were 100%, meaning that KC is in control of its destiny. In contrast, DEN’s odds of making the playoffs with losing only 1 game to SD were not 100%, meaning DEN needs help in making the playoffs if they lose that game.
The reason you got that result is that if KC and Dever both lost to SD but won the rest of their games, KC would have the division record tiebreaker (with two losses in the division compared to Denver’s three). Glad you are finding the software interesting.