NFL playoff races and other musings

 Edited to fix a week 10 data entry error.

 Not much changed this week in the AFC.

 In the NFC, everything has opened up quite a bit. Tiebreakers will play a huge role in the NFC race. If you are a fan of one of these teams, I encourage you to use the software on my main site to do scenario analysis.

If there is a particular analysis you’d like to see leave a comment and I’ll see what I can do.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New England	89.76	9.86	0.38	0.0
NY Jets	10.0	72.76	14.42	2.82
Buffalo	0.1	10.94	50.66	38.3
Miami	0.14	6.44	34.54	58.88

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Baltimore	96.64	3.2	0.14	0.02
Cincinnati	2.62	75.56	19.46	2.36
Pittsburgh	0.74	18.24	61.46	19.56
Cleveland	0.0	3.0	18.94	78.06

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Indianapolis	99.34	0.66	0.0	0.0
Jacksonville	0.66	92.3	6.24	0.8
Houston	0.0	3.38	50.84	45.78
Tennessee	0.0	3.66	42.92	53.42

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Diego	62.6	30.54	6.86	0.0
Denver	31.96	52.06	15.98	0.0
Kansas City	5.44	17.4	77.04	0.12
Oakland	0.0	0.0	0.12	99.88

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NY Giants	62.2	29.6	7.94	0.26
Dallas	29.46	43.76	25.04	1.74
Philadelphia	8.34	25.52	55.38	10.76
Washington	0.0	1.12	11.64	87.24

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Chicago	99.94	0.06	0.0	0.0
Minnesota	0.02	56.6	37.56	5.82
Green Bay	0.04	41.36	51.62	6.98
Detroit	0.0	1.98	10.82	87.2

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New Orleans	43.04	38.92	17.86	0.18
Carolina	43.84	35.02	20.72	0.42
Atlanta	13.12	25.72	56.52	4.64
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.34	4.9	94.76

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Seattle	72.32	22.54	5.12	0.02
San Francisco	21.64	42.1	34.88	1.38
St Louis	6.04	35.02	57.0	1.94
Arizona	0.0	0.34	3.0	96.66

Generated: Tue Nov 21 18:36:34 EST 2006

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Indianapolis	72.88	16.6	7.6	2.26	0.36	0.24	99.94
Baltimore	12.86	33.82	30.9	19.06	0.54	0.82	98.0
San Diego	9.5	24.06	23.04	6.0	25.96	8.26	96.82
Denver	2.96	15.74	10.34	2.92	44.82	13.94	90.72
New England	1.58	7.96	24.82	55.4	0.96	3.46	94.18
Kansas City	0.08	1.24	1.7	2.42	10.84	18.64	34.92
Jacksonville	0.1	0.28	0.24	0.04	9.38	22.12	32.16
Cincinnati	0.04	0.16	0.46	1.96	3.66	12.66	18.94
NY Jets	0.0	0.14	0.8	9.06	3.04	15.44	28.48
Pittsburgh	0.0	0.0	0.06	0.68	0.08	0.94	1.76
Buffalo	0.0	0.0	0.04	0.06	0.32	1.94	2.36
Miami	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.14	0.04	1.14	1.32
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.24	0.24
Houston	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.14	0.14
Tennessee	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.02
Oakland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Chicago	94.78	4.38	0.68	0.1	0.04	0.0	99.98
New Orleans	2.6	20.18	13.5	6.76	20.32	12.48	75.84
NY Giants	0.8	22.04	19.22	20.14	10.66	9.34	82.2
Carolina	0.84	16.96	14.38	11.66	14.44	12.18	70.46
Seattle	0.54	17.14	27.42	27.22	3.62	6.22	82.16
Dallas	0.36	12.78	8.3	8.02	19.18	12.78	61.42
Atlanta	0.04	2.54	4.38	6.16	7.48	9.06	29.66
San Francisco	0.0	1.96	6.4	13.28	4.82	6.96	33.42
Philadelphia	0.04	1.76	3.84	2.7	8.36	11.22	27.92
St Louis	0.0	0.24	1.86	3.94	3.84	8.46	18.34
Green Bay	0.0	0.02	0.0	0.02	0.72	1.96	2.72
Minnesota	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.0	6.22	8.66	14.9
Washington	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.24	0.3	0.54
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.06	0.36	0.42
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.02
Arizona	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Generated: Tue Nov 21 18:36:33 EST 2006

This entry was posted on Tuesday, November 21st, 2006 at 1:12 am and is filed under Weeky Predictions. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.