NFL playoff races and other musings

Barring a catastrophic collapse. five of six playoff qualifiers have been determined in the AFC: New England, Indianapolis, Baltimore, Denver and San Diego. Four team are in the thick of the hunt for the final spot, in order of likelihood: Jets, Jags, Chiefs and Bengals.

 In the NFC, Chicago has about a 90% chance of taking the #1 seed. The Saints, Giants, and Seahawks look to be playoff teams. After that it is wide open. In order of likelihood of qualifying for the playoffs, the Vikings, Eagles, Cowboys, Panthers, Falcons, 49ers and Rams are still in contention.

 

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New England	81.18	18.1	0.7	0.02
NY Jets	18.4	70.6	9.64	1.36
Buffalo	0.16	5.7	45.48	48.66
Miami	0.26	5.6	44.18	49.96

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Baltimore	99.0	0.94	0.06	0.0
Cincinnati	0.78	63.98	26.5	8.74
Cleveland	0.1	19.76	39.66	40.48
Pittsburgh	0.12	15.32	33.78	50.78

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Indianapolis	99.88	0.12	0.0	0.0
Jacksonville	0.12	81.42	16.94	1.52
Houston	0.0	16.34	63.88	19.78
Tennessee	0.0	2.12	19.18	78.7

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Denver	61.14	34.98	3.88	0.0
San Diego	37.18	54.78	8.0	0.04
Kansas City	1.68	10.16	82.02	6.14
Oakland	0.0	0.08	6.1	93.82

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NY Giants	81.3	14.46	3.68	0.56
Dallas	10.04	37.3	39.86	12.8
Philadelphia	8.22	42.54	34.76	14.48
Washington	0.44	5.7	21.7	72.16

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Chicago	98.7	1.3	0.0	0.0
Minnesota	1.26	89.28	9.02	0.44
Green Bay	0.04	8.38	72.3	19.28
Detroit	0.0	1.04	18.68	80.28

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New Orleans	73.8	19.98	6.18	0.04
Carolina	13.22	38.44	47.44	0.9
Atlanta	12.98	41.38	44.0	1.64
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.2	2.38	97.42

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Seattle	84.02	13.4	2.58	0.0
San Francisco	12.16	45.2	40.58	2.06
St Louis	3.82	40.9	53.04	2.24
Arizona	0.0	0.5	3.8	95.7

Generated: Tue Nov 14 00:52:57 EST 2006

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Indianapolis	85.88	9.96	3.76	0.28	0.02	0.08	99.98
Baltimore	7.94	38.2	41.22	11.64	0.22	0.26	99.48
Denver	3.98	34.62	20.02	2.52	31.42	5.0	97.56
San Diego	2.06	13.72	18.74	2.66	45.74	11.04	93.96
New England	0.12	2.98	14.24	63.84	1.56	6.84	89.58
Kansas City	0.0	0.42	0.6	0.66	5.9	14.86	22.44
NY Jets	0.0	0.06	1.12	17.22	3.82	18.06	40.28
Cincinnati	0.02	0.02	0.14	0.6	0.78	6.72	8.28
Jacksonville	0.0	0.02	0.1	0.0	9.66	27.76	37.54
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.04	0.06	0.1	2.52	2.72
Buffalo	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.14	0.16	1.04	1.36
Miami	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.26	0.04	1.22	1.52
Pittsburgh	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.12	0.04	0.56	0.72
Houston	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.5	3.68	4.18
Oakland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.04	0.34	0.38
Tennessee	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.02

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Chicago	88.52	8.68	1.32	0.18	1.18	0.12	100.0
New Orleans	6.42	29.7	22.3	15.38	8.14	6.54	88.48
NY Giants	2.54	30.34	24.58	23.84	4.54	5.08	90.92
Seattle	1.44	20.16	32.74	29.68	2.04	3.22	89.28
Minnesota	0.7	0.34	0.18	0.04	36.14	19.54	56.94
Dallas	0.18	2.9	3.34	3.62	11.28	14.7	36.02
Carolina	0.02	2.86	4.28	6.06	7.48	10.38	31.08
Atlanta	0.06	1.96	4.02	6.94	7.28	11.0	31.26
Philadelphia	0.08	1.7	2.94	3.5	12.16	14.0	34.38
San Francisco	0.02	0.88	3.06	8.2	2.72	5.86	20.74
St Louis	0.02	0.42	1.16	2.22	5.96	6.84	16.62
Washington	0.0	0.06	0.06	0.32	0.84	2.04	3.32
Green Bay	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.02	0.22	0.66	0.92
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.0	0.02
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.02	0.02
Arizona	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Generated: Tue Nov 14 00:52:57 EST 2006

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