In the AFC, three of the division winners all but determined: New England, Indianapolis, and Baltimore. In the Wild Card race, one of positions will almost certainly go to the second place finisher in the AFC West. The last Wild Card spot is between Jacksonville, Cincinnati, the Jets and the 3rd place AFC West team. In the AFC, you better have 10 wins if you are even thinking about the playoffs, 11 if you want to be very sure, and 12 if you dont want to think about tiebreakers.
In the NFC, the Bears and Giants are the clear cut favorites to win their division. Many pundits predicted that the East race would go down to the wire, so the Giants large lead is a bit of a surprise. After that, New Orleans, Seattle, and Atlanta all have a greater than 70% chance of qualifying for the playoffs, but those chances include both division championships and wild card chances. After that, things get pretty muddy, with Minnesota, St. Louis, Carolina, Dallas and Philadelphia all in the race. Nine wins looks like they are probably enough wins, but you need 10 if you want to be safe, and 11 to absolutely guarantee it.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| New England | 97.08 | 2.88 | 0.04 | 0.0 |
| NY Jets | 2.78 | 75.0 | 18.7 | 3.52 |
| Buffalo | 0.12 | 18.3 | 58.44 | 23.14 |
| Miami | 0.02 | 3.82 | 22.82 | 73.34 |
AFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Baltimore | 90.22 | 9.5 | 0.28 | 0.0 |
| Cincinnati | 9.62 | 83.26 | 6.86 | 0.26 |
| Cleveland | 0.08 | 5.02 | 57.22 | 37.68 |
| Pittsburgh | 0.08 | 2.22 | 35.64 | 62.06 |
AFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Indianapolis | 98.56 | 1.44 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Jacksonville | 1.42 | 93.6 | 4.48 | 0.5 |
| Houston | 0.02 | 3.42 | 54.7 | 41.86 |
| Tennessee | 0.0 | 1.54 | 40.82 | 57.64 |
AFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Denver | 47.94 | 31.48 | 20.44 | 0.14 |
| San Diego | 36.72 | 35.9 | 27.24 | 0.14 |
| Kansas City | 15.34 | 32.6 | 51.2 | 0.86 |
| Oakland | 0.0 | 0.02 | 1.12 | 98.86 |
NFC EAST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| NY Giants | 91.32 | 7.1 | 1.38 | 0.2 |
| Dallas | 4.26 | 41.7 | 37.96 | 16.08 |
| Philadelphia | 3.84 | 38.54 | 33.26 | 24.36 |
| Washington | 0.58 | 12.66 | 27.4 | 59.36 |
NFC NORTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Chicago | 97.1 | 2.84 | 0.06 | 0.0 |
| Minnesota | 2.74 | 75.56 | 17.84 | 3.86 |
| Green Bay | 0.16 | 17.58 | 54.76 | 27.5 |
| Detroit | 0.0 | 4.02 | 27.34 | 68.64 |
NFC SOUTH
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| New Orleans | 60.16 | 30.94 | 8.84 | 0.06 |
| Atlanta | 33.02 | 47.98 | 18.4 | 0.6 |
| Carolina | 6.82 | 20.9 | 68.62 | 3.66 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.0 | 0.18 | 4.14 | 95.68 |
NFC WEST
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| Seattle | 82.64 | 14.82 | 2.52 | 0.02 |
| St Louis | 14.32 | 64.32 | 20.56 | 0.8 |
| San Francisco | 3.04 | 20.08 | 66.16 | 10.72 |
| Arizona | 0.0 | 0.78 | 10.76 | 88.46 |
Generated: Mon Nov 06 23:29:34 EST 2006
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| Indianapolis | 78.86 | 12.16 | 5.5 | 2.04 | 1.04 | 0.28 | 99.88 |
| Baltimore | 7.0 | 22.42 | 25.34 | 35.46 | 1.82 | 2.44 | 94.48 |
| New England | 6.14 | 26.02 | 32.4 | 32.52 | 0.36 | 0.6 | 98.04 |
| Denver | 4.04 | 21.9 | 15.28 | 6.72 | 23.76 | 15.08 | 86.78 |
| San Diego | 2.84 | 11.96 | 12.96 | 8.96 | 25.42 | 17.54 | 79.68 |
| Kansas City | 0.48 | 4.16 | 5.96 | 4.74 | 20.62 | 23.72 | 59.68 |
| Jacksonville | 0.36 | 0.48 | 0.26 | 0.32 | 17.86 | 19.58 | 38.86 |
| Cincinnati | 0.28 | 0.88 | 1.76 | 6.7 | 6.88 | 13.32 | 29.82 |
| NY Jets | 0.0 | 0.02 | 0.5 | 2.26 | 1.88 | 5.2 | 9.86 |
| Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.38 |
| Houston | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.02 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.38 | 0.4 |
| Buffalo | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.12 | 0.34 | 1.36 | 1.82 |
| Pittsburgh | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.08 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.08 |
| Miami | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.02 | 0.0 | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| Oakland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Tennessee | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| Chicago | 55.96 | 24.78 | 11.76 | 4.6 | 1.12 | 1.1 | 99.32 |
| NY Giants | 22.84 | 24.08 | 21.08 | 23.32 | 1.58 | 1.88 | 94.78 |
| New Orleans | 13.16 | 21.94 | 17.58 | 7.48 | 20.44 | 9.3 | 89.9 |
| Seattle | 3.88 | 14.86 | 26.92 | 36.98 | 2.44 | 3.46 | 88.54 |
| Atlanta | 2.7 | 9.06 | 12.42 | 8.84 | 23.12 | 15.7 | 71.84 |
| Minnesota | 0.62 | 0.84 | 0.88 | 0.4 | 22.88 | 20.78 | 46.4 |
| St Louis | 0.42 | 1.4 | 3.68 | 8.82 | 7.02 | 10.68 | 32.02 |
| Carolina | 0.22 | 1.72 | 2.44 | 2.44 | 7.32 | 12.36 | 26.5 |
| Dallas | 0.1 | 0.88 | 1.2 | 2.08 | 7.02 | 10.68 | 21.96 |
| Philadelphia | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 2.04 | 5.32 | 8.82 | 17.98 |
| Washington | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.16 | 0.32 | 0.9 | 1.94 | 3.42 |
| San Francisco | 0.0 | 0.04 | 0.36 | 2.64 | 0.42 | 1.16 | 4.62 |
| Green Bay | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.28 | 1.44 | 1.88 |
| Detroit | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.46 | 0.56 |
| Tampa Bay | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.04 | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| Arizona | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Generated: Mon Nov 06 23:29:34 EST 2006