NFL playoff races and other musings

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedFootballAnalytics.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New England	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Miami	0.0	94.484	5.516	0.0
Buffalo	0.0	5.516	94.484	0.0
NY Jets	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Pittsburgh	59.942	40.058	0.0	0.0
Cincinnati	40.058	59.942	0.0	0.0
Baltimore	0.0	0.0	100.0	0.0
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Indianapolis	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Houston	0.0	100.0	0.0	0.0
Jacksonville	0.0	0.0	68.884	31.116
Tennessee	0.0	0.0	31.116	68.884

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Denver	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Kansas City	0.0	72.236	27.764	0.0
San Diego	0.0	27.764	72.236	0.0
Oakland	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Dallas	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Philadelphia	0.0	100.0	0.0	0.0
NY Giants	0.0	0.0	100.0	0.0
Washington	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Green Bay	67.76	32.24	0.0	0.0
Detroit	32.24	67.76	0.0	0.0
Minnesota	0.0	0.0	61.49	38.51
Chicago	0.0	0.0	38.51	61.49

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Carolina	53.536	14.672	31.792	0.0
New Orleans	0.0	68.708	31.292	0.0
Atlanta	46.464	16.62	36.916	0.0
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Seattle	94.114	5.886	0.0	0.0
Arizona	5.886	94.114	0.0	0.0
San Francisco	0.0	0.0	94.114	5.886
St Louis	0.0	0.0	5.886	94.114

Generated: Wed Dec 24 19:07:36 EST 2014

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
New England	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0
Denver	0.0	97.056	2.944	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0
Cincinnati	0.0	2.944	37.114	0.0	59.942	0.0	100.0
Pittsburgh	0.0	0.0	59.942	0.0	40.058	0.0	100.0
Indianapolis	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0	0.0	0.0	100.0
Baltimore	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	44.504	44.504
San Diego	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	27.764	27.764
Houston	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	20.224	20.224
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7.508	7.508
Buffalo	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Miami	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NY Jets	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Jacksonville	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Tennessee	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Oakland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Seattle	82.95	0.0	11.164	0.0	5.886	0.0	100.0
Green Bay	11.504	56.256	0.0	0.0	0.0	32.24	100.0
Detroit	3.65	28.59	0.0	0.0	0.0	67.76	100.0
Arizona	1.896	3.99	0.0	0.0	94.114	0.0	100.0
Dallas	0.0	11.164	88.836	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0
Carolina	0.0	0.0	0.0	53.536	0.0	0.0	53.536
Atlanta	0.0	0.0	0.0	46.464	0.0	0.0	46.464
NY Giants	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Philadelphia	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Washington	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Chicago	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Minnesota	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
New Orleans	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
St Louis	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
San Francisco	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 24 19:07:35 EST 2014

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