2014 Playoff Forecast after Week 14

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedFootballAnalytics.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 94.822 3.642 1.536 0.0
Miami 4.538 78.932 16.53 0.0
Buffalo 0.64 17.426 81.934 0.0
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 42.836 24.072 27.554 5.538
Baltimore 26.676 36.744 22.566 14.014
Cincinnati 26.206 26.156 30.294 17.344
Cleveland 4.282 13.028 19.586 63.104

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 93.298 6.702 0.0 0.0
Houston 6.702 93.298 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 62.954 37.046
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 37.046 62.954

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 99.9 0.1 0.0 0.0
Kansas City 0.0 62.3 37.7 0.0
San Diego 0.1 37.6 62.3 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 66.63 33.37 0.0 0.0
Dallas 33.37 66.63 0.0 0.0
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 76.544 23.456
Washington 0.0 0.0 23.456 76.544

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 73.588 26.412 0.0 0.0
Detroit 26.412 73.588 0.0 0.0
Chicago 0.0 0.0 71.998 28.002
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 28.002 71.998

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 47.294 33.738 18.968 0.0
Carolina 23.364 38.932 37.274 0.43
Atlanta 29.342 27.33 43.328 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.43 99.57

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arizona 43.68 52.642 3.678 0.0
Seattle 56.32 35.628 7.29 0.762
San Francisco 0.0 11.21 64.826 23.964
St Louis 0.0 0.52 24.206 75.274

Generated: Wed Dec 10 19:36:47 EST 2014

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Denver 51.242 43.646 4.022 0.99 0.074 0.024 99.998
New England 46.888 34.964 10.884 2.086 1.494 1.956 98.272
Indianapolis 1.158 12.108 47.392 32.64 0.888 1.344 95.53
Pittsburgh 0.244 6.088 18.706 17.798 12.62 12.046 67.502
Cincinnati 0.464 2.414 8.762 14.566 11.93 16.574 54.71
Baltimore 0.002 0.416 7.224 19.034 19.446 15.666 61.788
Miami 0.0 0.184 1.49 2.864 9.314 16.866 30.718
Houston 0.0 0.148 1.264 5.29 8.07 9.208 23.98
San Diego 0.002 0.03 0.056 0.012 10.502 9.34 19.942
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.126 4.156 2.368 3.206 9.856
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.616 8.736 30.352
Buffalo 0.0 0.002 0.074 0.564 1.678 5.034 7.352
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 39.366 30.902 3.32 0.0 12.85 11.87 98.308
Arizona 28.094 13.784 1.802 0.0 41.37 10.91 95.96
Seattle 24.77 20.218 11.332 0.0 22.696 9.402 88.418
Detroit 4.76 18.188 3.464 0.0 13.838 43.788 84.038
Dallas 2.036 10.38 20.954 0.0 5.5 13.356 52.226
Philadelphia 0.974 6.528 59.128 0.0 0.524 3.134 70.288
New Orleans 0.0 0.0 0.0 47.294 0.0 0.0 47.294
Atlanta 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.342 0.0 0.0 29.342
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.364 0.0 0.0 23.364
San Francisco 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.204 7.388 10.592
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.018 0.152 0.17
NY Giants 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chicago 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Dec 10 19:36:46 EST 2014

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