2014 Playoff Forecast after Week 10

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedFootballAnalytics.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 52.442 33.31 14.202 0.046
Miami 36.254 39.238 23.97 0.538
Buffalo 11.3 27.27 60.02 1.41
NY Jets 0.004 0.182 1.808 98.006

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cleveland 44.696 26.046 19.022 10.236
Pittsburgh 25.216 32.848 22.606 19.33
Baltimore 18.636 22.962 34.236 24.166
Cincinnati 11.452 18.144 24.136 46.268

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 93.466 6.34 0.19 0.004
Houston 6.254 75.826 15.428 2.492
Tennessee 0.256 15.064 63.854 20.826
Jacksonville 0.024 2.77 20.528 76.678

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 81.978 16.774 1.248 0.0
Kansas City 16.758 68.346 14.892 0.004
San Diego 1.264 14.88 83.72 0.136
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.14 99.86

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 57.052 35.234 6.854 0.86
Dallas 40.556 47.628 10.306 1.51
Washington 1.896 12.414 50.548 35.142
NY Giants 0.496 4.724 32.292 62.488

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 41.88 56.164 1.876 0.08
Detroit 57.876 39.59 2.34 0.194
Minnesota 0.154 2.552 52.376 44.918
Chicago 0.09 1.694 43.408 54.808

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 78.162 17.72 4.046 0.072
Carolina 15.54 56.6 25.882 1.978
Atlanta 6.276 25.1 64.952 3.672
Tampa Bay 0.022 0.58 5.12 94.278

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arizona 62.762 29.554 7.472 0.212
Seattle 29.806 40.476 27.726 1.992
San Francisco 7.392 29.374 57.544 5.69
St Louis 0.04 0.596 7.258 92.106

Generated: Wed Nov 12 22:34:39 EST 2014

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Denver 56.942 16.572 6.684 1.78 11.06 3.586 96.624
New England 11.234 15.736 14.822 10.65 7.232 10.186 69.86
Kansas City 9.798 4.3 1.986 0.674 38.612 15.466 70.836
Indianapolis 6.952 21.928 23.618 40.968 0.172 0.55 94.188
Cleveland 5.27 14.772 15.302 9.352 6.81 10.012 61.518
Miami 5.34 10.652 11.474 8.788 7.95 12.688 56.892
Pittsburgh 2.062 7.502 10.21 5.442 9.724 12.392 47.332
Cincinnati 0.886 2.596 4.16 3.81 4.188 7.842 23.482
Baltimore 0.474 3.254 6.786 8.122 4.262 9.388 32.286
Buffalo 0.538 1.584 3.416 5.762 2.07 4.852 18.222
San Diego 0.364 0.398 0.32 0.182 5.83 8.566 15.66
Houston 0.14 0.704 1.21 4.2 2.084 4.368 12.706
Tennessee 0.0 0.002 0.012 0.242 0.006 0.102 0.364
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.024 0.0 0.0 0.024
NY Jets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.004 0.0 0.002 0.006
Oakland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Arizona 33.96 20.578 7.974 0.25 15.964 12.15 90.876
Detroit 29.412 20.312 7.986 0.166 21.57 12.332 91.778
Green Bay 12.28 17.668 10.728 1.204 19.688 17.702 79.27
Seattle 11.088 9.246 9.196 0.276 19.066 15.788 64.66
Philadelphia 7.55 15.83 30.044 3.628 4.59 8.496 70.138
Dallas 4.244 11.776 23.868 0.668 7.294 12.946 60.796
San Francisco 1.416 3.552 2.358 0.066 10.446 15.288 33.126
New Orleans 0.038 0.9 5.75 71.474 0.006 0.038 78.206
Washington 0.0 0.038 1.436 0.422 0.25 1.61 3.756
Minnesota 0.012 0.054 0.07 0.018 0.682 1.956 2.792
Carolina 0.0 0.004 0.068 15.468 0.0 0.048 15.588
Atlanta 0.0 0.004 0.052 6.22 0.0 0.022 6.298
NY Giants 0.0 0.006 0.39 0.1 0.074 0.452 1.022
Chicago 0.0 0.032 0.05 0.008 0.332 1.05 1.472
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.03 0.01 0.038 0.122 0.2
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.022 0.0 0.0 0.022

Generated: Wed Nov 12 22:34:39 EST 2014

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