2013 Playoff Predictions after Week 5

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Jets 43.428 32.65 18.216 5.706
New England 36.196 34.082 22.41 7.312
Miami 17.584 24.236 35.302 22.878
Buffalo 2.792 9.032 24.072 64.104

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Cincinnati 64.748 24.25 8.808 2.194
Cleveland 23.656 41.282 24.3 10.762
Baltimore 7.374 19.712 37.26 35.654
Pittsburgh 4.222 14.756 29.632 51.39

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Indianapolis 77.378 16.942 5.678 0.002
Tennessee 11.768 42.188 45.382 0.662
Houston 10.85 40.752 47.588 0.81
Jacksonville 0.004 0.118 1.352 98.526

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 69.228 29.188 1.544 0.04
Kansas City 30.106 63.152 6.158 0.584
San Diego 0.63 6.68 68.53 24.16
Oakland 0.036 0.98 23.768 75.216

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Philadelphia 73.11 21.802 4.41 0.678
Dallas 22.31 49.3 20.848 7.542
Washington 2.912 16.68 37.14 43.268
NY Giants 1.668 12.218 37.602 48.512

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Detroit 37.074 38.442 20.792 3.692
Green Bay 46.246 30.52 18.418 4.816
Chicago 15.416 26.646 44.992 12.946
Minnesota 1.264 4.392 15.798 78.546

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 95.604 4.196 0.196 0.004
Carolina 3.93 63.446 24.228 8.396
Atlanta 0.388 22.778 46.876 29.958
Tampa Bay 0.078 9.58 28.7 61.642

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 76.258 21.19 2.524 0.028
San Francisco 21.36 64.452 13.906 0.282
Arizona 2.38 14.2 76.784 6.636
St Louis 0.002 0.158 6.786 93.054

Generated: Wed Oct 09 20:51:24 EDT 2013

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Denver 53.162 12.358 3.108 0.6 24.362 3.74 97.33
Kansas City 21.948 5.934 1.81 0.414 48.782 9.51 88.398
Indianapolis 14.794 30.598 21.054 10.932 2.676 5.8 85.854
Cincinnati 3.804 15.516 19.884 25.544 1.598 5.032 71.378
NY Jets 1.772 11.128 16.802 13.726 3.088 9.798 56.314
New England 1.938 7.496 12.242 14.52 3.058 8.974 48.228
Tennessee 0.734 4.73 4.328 1.976 4.164 17.142 33.074
Miami 0.586 4.188 6.484 6.326 2.14 7.832 27.556
Houston 0.586 3.602 4.044 2.618 4.21 12.828 27.888
Cleveland 0.412 3.028 6.322 13.894 1.768 6.182 31.606
San Diego 0.196 0.21 0.156 0.068 2.736 5.9 9.266
Baltimore 0.022 0.632 1.778 4.942 0.354 2.602 10.33
Buffalo 0.028 0.318 1.056 1.39 0.546 2.172 5.51
Pittsburgh 0.012 0.246 0.918 3.046 0.174 1.43 5.826
Oakland 0.006 0.016 0.012 0.002 0.344 1.058 1.438
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.002 0.0 0.0 0.004

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New Orleans 40.274 32.024 17.0 6.306 1.182 1.218 98.004
Seattle 40.186 23.322 10.29 2.46 15.958 4.43 96.646
San Francisco 8.51 8.188 3.644 1.018 44.802 14.668 80.83
Green Bay 3.938 11.622 20.188 10.498 6.73 14.546 67.522
Philadelphia 3.226 9.85 16.812 43.222 1.59 3.412 78.112
Detroit 2.576 8.592 16.756 9.15 9.266 17.208 63.548
Chicago 0.464 2.562 7.586 4.804 4.972 12.842 33.23
Dallas 0.342 1.808 4.174 15.986 2.208 5.956 30.474
Arizona 0.284 0.916 0.882 0.298 7.29 11.586 21.256
Carolina 0.166 0.862 1.492 1.41 4.022 8.078 16.03
Minnesota 0.012 0.112 0.594 0.546 0.644 2.108 4.016
Atlanta 0.014 0.058 0.138 0.178 0.768 1.914 3.07
Washington 0.002 0.048 0.22 2.642 0.252 0.836 4.0
NY Giants 0.004 0.024 0.192 1.448 0.154 0.736 2.558
Tampa Bay 0.002 0.012 0.03 0.034 0.15 0.4 0.628
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.0 0.012 0.062 0.076

Generated: Wed Oct 09 20:51:24 EDT 2013

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