NFL playoff races and other musings

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New England	91.874	6.114	1.78	0.232
NY Jets	3.634	47.61	32.11	16.646
Buffalo	1.148	29.298	32.228	37.326
Miami	3.344	16.978	33.882	45.796

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Baltimore	80.232	16.908	2.86	0.0
Pittsburgh	15.798	54.984	27.696	1.522
Cincinnati	3.97	27.814	66.146	2.07
Cleveland	0.0	0.294	3.298	96.408

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Houston	98.114	1.87	0.016	0.0
Indianapolis	1.856	80.756	17.344	0.044
Tennessee	0.03	17.292	77.002	5.676
Jacksonville	0.0	0.082	5.638	94.28

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Denver	99.946	0.054	0.0	0.0
San Diego	0.024	70.354	29.528	0.094
Oakland	0.03	29.564	68.454	1.952
Kansas City	0.0	0.028	2.018	97.954

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NY Giants	55.13	32.6	10.882	1.388
Dallas	31.556	40.42	24.082	3.942
Washington	12.466	23.982	47.316	16.236
Philadelphia	0.848	2.998	17.72	78.434

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Green Bay	60.648	27.232	10.116	2.004
Chicago	27.426	46.028	20.188	6.358
Minnesota	11.694	23.472	48.45	16.384
Detroit	0.232	3.268	21.246	75.254

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Atlanta	94.304	5.642	0.054	0.0
Tampa Bay	5.64	79.778	13.41	1.172
New Orleans	0.056	12.942	43.41	43.592
Carolina	0.0	1.638	43.126	55.236

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Francisco	84.592	15.14	0.264	0.004
Seattle	15.266	78.514	5.566	0.654
Arizona	0.054	3.936	46.922	49.088
St Louis	0.088	2.41	47.248	50.254

Generated: Tue Nov 20 19:44:18 EST 2012

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Houston	77.796	14.028	5.168	1.122	1.754	0.12	99.988
Denver	13.156	54.442	21.886	10.462	0.008	0.02	99.974
New England	5.8	12.002	23.664	50.408	1.384	2.244	95.502
Baltimore	2.984	18.146	40.136	18.966	11.988	4.908	97.128
Indianapolis	0.204	0.504	0.638	0.51	25.588	21.126	48.57
Pittsburgh	0.058	0.8	6.568	8.372	27.154	19.762	62.714
Cincinnati	0.002	0.062	1.474	2.432	12.07	15.684	31.724
NY Jets	0.0	0.01	0.176	3.448	4.432	9.718	17.784
Miami	0.0	0.0	0.176	3.168	0.744	2.266	6.354
Buffalo	0.0	0.0	0.09	1.058	3.476	6.56	11.184
San Diego	0.0	0.006	0.014	0.004	7.49	9.422	16.936
Tennessee	0.0	0.0	0.008	0.022	2.712	5.11	7.852
Oakland	0.0	0.0	0.002	0.028	1.188	2.964	4.182
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.012	0.096	0.108
Jacksonville	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Atlanta	54.204	22.866	13.956	3.278	2.268	1.85	98.422
San Francisco	28.154	36.03	17.742	2.666	9.662	3.624	97.878
Green Bay	8.684	16.35	26.922	8.692	11.386	11.994	84.028
Chicago	4.186	8.508	11.372	3.36	22.864	17.982	68.272
Seattle	2.234	7.47	4.388	1.174	35.006	20.14	70.412
NY Giants	1.934	6.09	14.782	32.324	4.664	8.028	67.822
Tampa Bay	0.364	1.264	2.346	1.666	6.932	14.654	27.226
Minnesota	0.218	1.1	5.204	5.172	3.522	8.958	24.174
Dallas	0.018	0.228	2.278	29.032	1.15	4.31	37.016
Washington	0.0	0.066	0.838	11.562	0.634	2.722	15.822
Detroit	0.0	0.02	0.098	0.114	1.116	2.942	4.29
New Orleans	0.002	0.006	0.028	0.02	0.47	1.502	2.028
Arizona	0.002	0.002	0.02	0.03	0.162	0.598	0.814
Philadelphia	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.848	0.004	0.022	0.874
St Louis	0.0	0.0	0.026	0.062	0.16	0.674	0.922
Carolina	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Generated: Tue Nov 20 19:44:18 EST 2012

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