NFL playoff races and other musings

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Houston	80.404	12.566	3.924	1.05	1.442	0.364	99.75
Denver	11.078	43.68	23.666	14.97	1.986	1.598	96.978
Miami	2.174	13.532	18.566	11.186	13.84	10.734	70.032
New England	2.704	7.362	12.468	12.834	13.436	12.656	61.46
Baltimore	1.932	11.856	16.824	19.132	10.652	8.862	69.258
Pittsburgh	0.798	5.636	13.426	22.876	8.5	9.012	60.248
Indianapolis	0.324	0.386	0.374	0.292	8.33	7.744	17.45
NY Jets	0.132	1.642	5.414	8.898	8.554	10.9	35.54
San Diego	0.174	1.052	0.988	1.096	11.27	10.26	24.84
Cincinnati	0.09	0.9	1.844	3.924	4.42	6.41	17.588
Oakland	0.07	0.906	1.182	1.084	9.334	9.89	22.466
Tennessee	0.078	0.188	0.214	0.192	5.708	6.822	13.202
Buffalo	0.042	0.278	1.02	1.748	2.238	3.842	9.168
Cleveland	0.0	0.01	0.072	0.68	0.192	0.584	1.538
Kansas City	0.0	0.004	0.016	0.034	0.022	0.084	0.16
Jacksonville	0.0	0.002	0.002	0.004	0.076	0.238	0.322

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Atlanta	35.658	22.432	18.084	20.46	0.256	0.352	97.242
San Francisco	23.334	22.896	17.99	13.284	5.598	4.458	87.56
Chicago	13.702	13.452	12.166	7.282	14.972	10.112	71.686
NY Giants	12.82	13.972	13.776	10.454	12.01	9.36	72.392
Green Bay	4.374	7.566	9.894	8.616	12.516	12.126	55.092
Dallas	2.528	5.052	7.06	11.466	6.492	9.178	41.776
Minnesota	2.58	4.46	5.572	5.304	8.892	10.002	36.81
Seattle	2.46	3.678	3.17	1.834	19.026	12.95	43.118
Philadelphia	1.042	2.19	4.118	7.914	3.142	5.45	23.856
St Louis	0.422	1.38	2.572	3.536	4.132	6.882	18.924
Detroit	0.458	1.1	1.708	1.766	5.202	6.704	16.938
Washington	0.266	1.066	2.246	4.03	3.45	5.714	16.772
Arizona	0.32	0.618	1.04	1.466	3.086	4.18	10.71
Tampa Bay	0.022	0.082	0.344	1.324	0.54	1.146	3.458
Carolina	0.012	0.052	0.222	1.094	0.612	1.246	3.238
New Orleans	0.002	0.004	0.038	0.17	0.074	0.14	0.428

Generated: Wed Oct 24 00:23:53 EDT 2012

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Miami	45.458	28.708	18.266	7.568
New England	35.368	33.656	23.042	7.934
NY Jets	16.086	28.418	36.93	18.566
Buffalo	3.088	9.218	21.762	65.932

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Baltimore	49.744	35.694	12.248	2.314
Pittsburgh	42.736	37.61	15.326	4.328
Cincinnati	6.758	22.346	54.268	16.628
Cleveland	0.762	4.35	18.158	76.73

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Houston	97.944	1.922	0.134	0.0
Indianapolis	1.376	48.912	40.62	9.092
Tennessee	0.672	44.382	42.134	12.812
Jacksonville	0.008	4.784	17.112	78.096

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Denver	93.394	5.838	0.75	0.018
San Diego	3.31	48.834	43.912	3.944
Oakland	3.242	43.722	46.494	6.542
Kansas City	0.054	1.606	8.844	89.496

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NY Giants	51.022	28.792	14.696	5.49
Dallas	26.106	30.872	25.532	17.49
Philadelphia	15.264	23.512	31.672	29.552
Washington	7.608	16.824	28.1	47.468

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Chicago	46.602	29.294	16.874	7.23
Green Bay	30.45	32.318	23.208	14.024
Minnesota	17.916	25.926	34.428	21.73
Detroit	5.032	12.462	25.49	57.016

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Atlanta	96.634	2.934	0.39	0.042
Carolina	1.38	47.244	35.488	15.888
Tampa Bay	1.772	37.744	37.394	23.09
New Orleans	0.214	12.078	26.728	60.98

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Francisco	77.504	15.16	5.548	1.788
Seattle	11.142	44.204	28.132	16.522
St Louis	7.91	25.718	36.918	29.454
Arizona	3.444	14.918	29.402	52.236

Generated: Wed Oct 24 00:23:53 EDT 2012

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