NFL playoff races and other musings

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Houston	61.606	20.044	9.87	5.306	1.46	0.686	98.972
Denver	14.882	31.152	23.752	21.878	2.086	1.876	95.626
Baltimore	14.094	19.134	19.132	17.718	8.58	5.802	84.46
Miami	3.562	11.686	16.032	11.15	16.262	11.66	70.352
New England	3.074	6.77	9.87	10.516	13.212	12.528	55.97
NY Jets	0.692	3.282	7.05	9.828	9.262	11.112	41.226
Cincinnati	0.662	2.512	3.838	6.338	9.624	9.85	32.824
Pittsburgh	0.38	1.668	4.284	8.776	6.658	8.242	30.008
Buffalo	0.326	1.132	2.446	2.584	5.842	7.562	19.892
San Diego	0.242	0.918	1.148	1.598	9.558	9.312	22.776
Oakland	0.206	0.962	1.394	1.76	8.296	9.268	21.886
Indianapolis	0.224	0.48	0.656	0.974	5.14	5.674	13.148
Tennessee	0.034	0.134	0.188	0.352	2.422	3.336	6.466
Cleveland	0.014	0.106	0.296	1.048	1.12	2.092	4.676
Jacksonville	0.002	0.02	0.034	0.076	0.438	0.87	1.44
Kansas City	0.0	0.0	0.01	0.098	0.04	0.13	0.278

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Atlanta	38.74	23.062	16.65	15.146	1.132	1.108	95.838
San Francisco	22.764	22.448	15.828	10.682	8.646	5.508	85.876
Chicago	14.744	15.348	13.528	8.524	12.094	8.34	72.578
NY Giants	9.964	12.442	14.682	12.558	8.658	8.544	66.848
Seattle	3.502	4.79	4.102	2.284	18.306	12.852	45.836
Minnesota	3.036	5.188	6.274	6.552	9.302	9.288	39.64
Green Bay	1.7	3.906	6.662	6.898	8.368	9.344	36.878
St Louis	1.352	2.81	3.556	3.088	9.526	10.278	30.61
Dallas	1.166	2.65	5.13	10.796	3.55	6.08	29.372
Philadelphia	0.91	2.364	4.598	9.95	2.786	5.014	25.622
Detroit	0.816	1.684	2.678	2.462	5.678	6.668	19.986
Washington	0.65	1.79	3.782	6.568	3.466	5.522	21.778
Arizona	0.348	0.676	0.84	0.93	3.65	4.46	10.904
Tampa Bay	0.172	0.408	0.774	1.858	1.986	2.828	8.026
Carolina	0.136	0.432	0.91	1.652	2.832	4.134	10.096
New Orleans	0.0	0.002	0.006	0.052	0.02	0.032	0.112

Generated: Wed Oct 17 01:28:42 EDT 2012

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Miami	42.43	29.376	18.408	9.786
New England	30.23	29.5	25.286	14.984
NY Jets	20.852	27.044	29.826	22.278
Buffalo	6.488	14.08	26.48	52.952

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Baltimore	70.078	21.15	7.19	1.582
Cincinnati	13.35	37.366	35.076	14.208
Pittsburgh	15.108	32.198	31.808	20.886
Cleveland	1.464	9.286	25.926	63.324

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Houston	96.826	2.94	0.228	0.006
Indianapolis	2.334	48.634	33.026	16.006
Tennessee	0.708	34.908	37.818	26.566
Jacksonville	0.132	13.518	28.928	57.422

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Denver	91.664	7.198	1.084	0.054
San Diego	3.906	46.538	44.632	4.924
Oakland	4.322	44.006	43.92	7.752
Kansas City	0.108	2.258	10.364	87.27

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NY Giants	49.646	26.848	15.87	7.636
Dallas	19.742	27.446	27.898	24.914
Philadelphia	17.822	25.852	29.054	27.272
Washington	12.79	19.854	27.178	40.178

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Chicago	52.144	25.496	14.81	7.55
Minnesota	21.05	29.01	30.39	19.55
Green Bay	19.166	29.886	28.536	22.412
Detroit	7.64	15.608	26.264	50.488

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Atlanta	93.598	5.564	0.816	0.022
Carolina	3.13	51.024	40.678	5.168
Tampa Bay	3.212	40.924	46.942	8.922
New Orleans	0.06	2.488	11.564	85.888

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Francisco	71.722	18.614	7.292	2.372
Seattle	14.678	38.054	30.194	17.074
St Louis	10.806	30.44	35.678	23.076
Arizona	2.794	12.892	26.836	57.478

Generated: Wed Oct 17 01:28:42 EDT 2012

This entry was posted on Wednesday, October 17th, 2012 at 1:40 am and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.