NFL playoff races and other musings

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New England	43.228	31.64	18.706	6.426
Miami	39.314	33.752	19.146	7.788
NY Jets	14.354	24.904	37.456	23.286
Buffalo	3.104	9.704	24.692	62.5

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Baltimore	66.568	24.056	8.384	0.992
Cincinnati	21.03	43.816	28.326	6.828
Pittsburgh	11.674	26.748	43.05	18.528
Cleveland	0.728	5.38	20.24	73.652

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Houston	98.952	1.02	0.026	0.0020
Indianapolis	0.848	52.144	31.674	15.334
Tennessee	0.174	33.544	38.04	28.242
Jacksonville	0.026	13.292	30.26	56.422

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Denver	73.798	20.89	4.596	0.716
San Diego	21.692	53.022	20.668	4.618
Oakland	3.506	19.552	48.91	28.032
Kansas City	1.004	6.536	25.826	66.634

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Philadelphia	50.58	26.662	15.72	7.038
Dallas	26.588	30.56	26.562	16.29
NY Giants	15.842	28.358	33.404	22.396
Washington	6.99	14.42	24.314	54.276

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Chicago	51.136	32.612	12.394	3.858
Minnesota	39.39	39.026	16.734	4.85
Green Bay	6.074	17.37	39.648	36.908
Detroit	3.4	10.992	31.224	54.384

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Atlanta	99.114	0.84	0.044	0.0020
Carolina	0.724	71.23	22.24	5.806
Tampa Bay	0.12	18.296	44.616	36.968
New Orleans	0.042	9.634	33.1	57.224

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Francisco	87.168	9.512	2.638	0.682
St Louis	5.592	37.878	31.57	24.96
Arizona	4.722	32.666	34.702	27.91
Seattle	2.518	19.944	31.09	46.448

Generated: Tue Oct 09 19:04:09 EDT 2012

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Houston	83.25	11.152	3.394	1.156	0.67	0.232	99.854
Baltimore	7.436	24.294	18.764	16.074	10.052	6.892	83.512
Denver	2.938	24.476	22.47	23.914	6.062	5.608	85.468
New England	2.994	10.844	15.546	13.844	11.618	11.212	66.058
Miami	1.068	11.738	15.4	11.108	13.954	12.16	65.428
San Diego	0.986	6.6	6.458	7.648	15.65	12.526	49.868
Cincinnati	0.658	5.472	6.61	8.29	12.588	11.454	45.072
Pittsburgh	0.238	1.984	3.614	5.838	6.54	8.02	26.234
NY Jets	0.11	2.042	4.87	7.332	5.97	8.252	28.576
Indianapolis	0.206	0.244	0.22	0.178	6.958	7.164	14.97
Oakland	0.038	0.626	1.086	1.756	3.742	5.466	12.714
Buffalo	0.048	0.388	1.134	1.534	2.644	4.358	10.106
Tennessee	0.022	0.042	0.044	0.066	1.968	3.316	5.458
Kansas City	0.0080	0.048	0.198	0.75	0.554	1.124	2.682
Cleveland	0.0	0.048	0.19	0.49	0.642	1.236	2.606
Jacksonville	0.0	0.0020	0.0020	0.022	0.388	0.98	1.394

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Atlanta	47.412	29.542	14.264	7.896	0.19	0.14	99.444
San Francisco	35.144	30.49	16.066	5.468	6.03	3.08	96.278
Chicago	7.008	13.778	20.232	10.118	16.632	9.732	77.5
Minnesota	4.916	10.28	15.536	8.658	16.636	11.518	67.544
Philadelphia	2.658	6.62	13.808	27.494	4.298	6.426	61.304
Arizona	0.692	1.558	1.62	0.852	12.51	11.336	28.568
NY Giants	0.578	1.886	4.394	8.984	5.892	8.488	30.222
St Louis	0.592	1.64	2.094	1.266	13.362	13.43	32.384
Dallas	0.472	1.984	5.39	18.742	3.328	6.678	36.594
Seattle	0.306	0.888	0.826	0.498	9.02	9.49	21.028
Green Bay	0.082	0.558	2.62	2.814	4.436	6.796	17.306
Detroit	0.084	0.346	1.38	1.59	3.206	4.792	11.398
Washington	0.044	0.294	1.506	5.146	1.574	3.44	12.004
Carolina	0.012	0.124	0.226	0.362	2.64	4.104	7.468
Tampa Bay	0.0	0.012	0.034	0.074	0.208	0.402	0.73
New Orleans	0.0	0.0	0.0040	0.038	0.038	0.148	0.228

Generated: Tue Oct 09 19:04:09 EDT 2012

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