NFL playoff races and other musings

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New England	57.794	24.15	12.106	5.95
Miami	19.982	29.596	26.53	23.892
Buffalo	11.742	25.07	30.786	32.402
NY Jets	10.482	21.184	30.578	37.756

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Baltimore	70.692	24.34	4.324	0.644
Cincinnati	25.404	54.918	15.622	4.056
Cleveland	1.314	9.434	42.058	47.194
Pittsburgh	2.59	11.308	37.996	48.106

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Houston	99.194	0.78	0.026	0.0
Tennessee	0.618	60.976	25.232	13.174
Jacksonville	0.05	19.798	39.15	41.002
Indianapolis	0.138	18.446	35.592	45.824

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Denver	70.21	25.376	3.89	0.524
San Diego	27.388	56.778	13.496	2.338
Oakland	1.606	12.716	52.852	32.826
Kansas City	0.796	5.13	29.762	64.312

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Philadelphia	73.424	18.546	6.878	1.152
NY Giants	13.624	42.404	33.846	10.126
Dallas	11.706	32.466	40.814	15.014
Washington	1.246	6.584	18.462	73.708

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Chicago	44.46	31.154	17.636	6.75
Minnesota	37.108	32.8	22.384	7.708
Green Bay	14.886	25.856	35.728	23.53
Detroit	3.546	10.19	24.252	62.012

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Atlanta	96.192	3.72	0.082	0.0060
Carolina	3.706	87.45	8.304	0.54
Tampa Bay	0.096	7.704	69.972	22.228
New Orleans	0.0060	1.126	21.642	77.226

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Francisco	67.154	25.258	6.238	1.35
Arizona	26.882	49.54	18.27	5.308
St Louis	4.656	18.188	45.492	31.664
Seattle	1.308	7.014	30.0	61.678

Generated: Wed Oct 03 23:27:51 EDT 2012

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Houston	78.692	14.006	4.798	1.698	0.406	0.2	99.8
Baltimore	9.966	27.274	21.348	12.104	11.65	6.64	88.982
Denver	3.976	25.248	23.148	17.838	9.846	6.826	86.882
New England	3.15	10.148	18.336	26.16	5.654	8.464	71.912
San Diego	1.854	8.672	9.13	7.732	19.934	14.21	61.532
Cincinnati	1.684	9.126	8.136	6.458	22.248	14.012	61.664
Miami	0.176	2.492	6.39	10.924	6.46	9.928	36.37
Buffalo	0.262	1.238	3.838	6.404	5.83	9.112	26.684
NY Jets	0.128	0.942	2.744	6.668	3.258	6.122	19.862
Pittsburgh	0.028	0.284	0.89	1.388	2.244	3.682	8.516
Tennessee	0.046	0.13	0.224	0.218	5.716	8.58	14.914
Oakland	0.01	0.162	0.414	1.02	2.492	3.918	8.016
Cleveland	0.0080	0.148	0.362	0.796	1.74	3.084	6.138
Indianapolis	0.014	0.04	0.04	0.044	1.188	2.178	3.504
Kansas City	0.0040	0.076	0.186	0.53	0.618	1.298	2.712
Jacksonville	0.0020	0.014	0.016	0.018	0.716	1.746	2.512

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Atlanta	57.434	21.54	11.25	5.968	1.636	0.858	98.686
San Francisco	15.62	23.546	16.922	11.066	11.76	7.006	85.92
Philadelphia	11.828	17.876	21.998	21.722	4.396	5.014	82.834
Chicago	4.694	10.586	14.154	15.026	9.302	9.672	63.434
Arizona	4.02	8.918	7.842	6.102	16.994	13.056	56.932
Minnesota	3.468	8.886	11.312	13.442	9.356	9.474	55.938
NY Giants	1.156	2.972	4.626	4.87	12.454	12.486	38.564
Carolina	0.716	1.058	1.06	0.872	18.158	15.968	37.832
Green Bay	0.422	1.716	4.282	8.466	4.438	6.646	25.97
Dallas	0.352	1.358	3.306	6.69	3.908	6.76	22.374
St Louis	0.184	0.878	1.606	1.988	3.768	5.838	14.262
Detroit	0.046	0.296	0.81	2.394	1.432	2.632	7.61
Seattle	0.042	0.262	0.452	0.552	1.542	2.738	5.588
Washington	0.016	0.096	0.342	0.792	0.628	1.334	3.208
Tampa Bay	0.0020	0.012	0.038	0.044	0.226	0.488	0.81
New Orleans	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0060	0.0020	0.03	0.038

Generated: Wed Oct 03 23:27:51 EDT 2012

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