2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 12

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 99.06 0.804 0.136 0.0
NY Jets 0.408 81.432 16.726 1.434
Buffalo 0.532 15.532 71.462 12.474
Miami 0.0 2.232 11.676 86.092

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 50.95 45.048 3.972 0.03
Baltimore 47.702 47.062 5.176 0.06
Cincinnati 1.342 7.88 90.656 0.122
Cleveland 0.0060 0.01 0.196 99.788

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 99.916 0.084 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 0.084 88.478 11.438 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0 11.438 88.436 0.126
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.126 99.874

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Oakland 73.906 23.404 2.486 0.204
Denver 24.922 68.418 5.968 0.692
San Diego 0.852 5.342 66.874 26.932
Kansas City 0.32 2.836 24.672 72.172

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 76.786 18.528 4.626 0.06
NY Giants 20.404 53.626 21.098 4.872
Philadelphia 2.732 23.006 58.134 16.128
Washington 0.078 4.84 16.142 78.94

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 99.946 0.05 0.0040 0.0
Chicago 0.03 54.278 45.692 0.0
Detroit 0.024 45.672 54.304 0.0
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 95.356 4.63 0.014 0.0
Atlanta 4.626 92.182 3.17 0.022
Tampa Bay 0.018 3.014 71.364 25.604
Carolina 0.0 0.174 25.452 74.374

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 99.954 0.046 0.0 0.0
Arizona 0.026 45.512 52.362 2.1
Seattle 0.02 53.828 41.63 4.522
St Louis 0.0 0.614 6.008 93.378

Generated: Tue Nov 29 22:34:57 EST 2011

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Houston 40.93 35.304 21.01 2.672 0.0040 0.03 99.95
New England 25.188 24.384 45.976 3.512 0.074 0.458 99.592
Baltimore 19.256 15.436 11.588 1.422 44.41 5.478 97.59
Pittsburgh 14.276 23.4 12.782 0.492 44.698 3.714 99.362
Cincinnati 0.266 0.41 0.544 0.122 6.966 36.246 44.554
Oakland 0.076 0.886 5.818 67.126 0.622 6.41 80.938
Denver 0.0080 0.154 1.648 23.112 0.608 10.102 35.632
Buffalo 0.0 0.0060 0.368 0.158 0.31 4.006 4.848
NY Jets 0.0 0.0080 0.208 0.192 1.054 23.248 24.71
Tennessee 0.0 0.012 0.056 0.016 1.242 9.84 11.166
San Diego 0.0 0.0 0.0020 0.85 0.0080 0.39 1.25
Kansas City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.32 0.0 0.022 0.342
Cleveland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0060 0.0040 0.032 0.042
Miami 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.018 0.018
Jacksonville 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0060 0.0060
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 94.334 5.304 0.288 0.02 0.05 0.0040 100.0
San Francisco 5.328 58.448 24.324 11.854 0.0040 0.02 99.978
New Orleans 0.242 27.15 50.502 17.462 1.454 1.536 98.346
Dallas 0.086 8.642 21.5 46.558 1.16 3.322 81.268
Atlanta 0.0 0.38 2.606 1.64 18.64 31.78 55.046
NY Giants 0.0 0.04 0.75 19.614 1.026 4.926 26.356
Chicago 0.0080 0.018 0.0040 0.0 48.602 28.516 77.148
Detroit 0.0020 0.018 0.0040 0.0 28.828 27.948 56.8
Philadelphia 0.0 0.0 0.0040 2.728 0.114 0.966 3.812
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.01 0.016 0.024 0.262 0.312
Washington 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.078 0.018 0.178 0.274
Tampa Bay 0.0 0.0 0.0060 0.012 0.016 0.158 0.192
Seattle 0.0 0.0 0.0020 0.018 0.064 0.384 0.468
Minnesota 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
St Louis 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Tue Nov 29 22:34:57 EST 2011

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