2011 NFL Playoff Predictions after week 5

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New England 54.072 35.19 10.25 0.488
Buffalo 36.736 40.428 20.756 2.08
NY Jets 8.898 22.46 57.228 11.414
Miami 0.294 1.922 11.766 86.018

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 41.136 37.34 17.102 4.422
Baltimore 44.812 33.838 16.72 4.63
Cincinnati 12.172 23.082 46.924 17.822
Cleveland 1.88 5.74 19.254 73.126

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Houston 64.264 30.53 4.948 0.258
Tennessee 33.144 55.536 10.254 1.066
Jacksonville 2.474 12.098 65.204 20.224
Indianapolis 0.118 1.836 19.594 78.452

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 60.188 31.714 6.94 1.158
Oakland 35.218 46.078 14.778 3.926
Kansas City 2.94 13.206 41.008 42.846
Denver 1.654 9.002 37.274 52.07

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Dallas 60.804 25.628 10.56 3.008
Washington 26.348 41.504 22.858 9.29
NY Giants 10.272 24.424 44.93 20.374
Philadelphia 2.576 8.444 21.652 67.328

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 58.35 39.686 1.806 0.158
Detroit 41.288 55.442 3.05 0.22
Chicago 0.262 3.398 61.262 35.078
Minnesota 0.1 1.474 33.882 64.544

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
New Orleans 96.356 3.186 0.402 0.056
Carolina 1.566 45.968 32.076 20.39
Tampa Bay 1.652 36.432 39.086 22.83
Atlanta 0.426 14.414 28.436 56.724

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Francisco 88.186 9.254 2.124 0.436
Seattle 5.558 43.282 32.5 18.66
Arizona 4.29 28.886 37.068 29.756
St Louis 1.966 18.578 28.308 51.148

Generated: Tue Oct 11 18:10:29 EDT 2011

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
New England 19.422 15.642 11.874 7.134 13.718 10.41 78.2
Baltimore 15.984 12.268 9.862 6.698 13.858 11.4 70.07
Houston 15.412 16.372 16.102 16.378 6.05 6.516 76.83
Pittsburgh 14.5 11.37 9.276 5.99 18.318 11.816 71.27
San Diego 10.318 12.402 15.252 22.216 3.874 5.204 69.266
Buffalo 9.992 10.276 9.08 7.388 12.494 11.336 60.566
Tennessee 6.216 8.53 9.506 8.892 10.9 11.464 55.508
Oakland 4.076 6.796 10.358 13.988 5.864 8.628 49.71
Cincinnati 2.71 3.262 3.53 2.67 8.114 9.974 30.26
NY Jets 0.942 2.06 2.846 3.05 3.86 6.84 19.598
Cleveland 0.188 0.382 0.604 0.706 1.164 2.322 5.366
Jacksonville 0.106 0.242 0.608 1.518 0.53 1.31 4.314
Kansas City 0.094 0.256 0.66 1.93 0.716 1.416 5.072
Denver 0.04 0.128 0.364 1.122 0.466 1.148 3.268
Miami 0.0 0.01 0.056 0.228 0.058 0.168 0.52
Indianapolis 0.0 0.0040 0.022 0.092 0.016 0.048 0.182

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Green Bay 37.972 13.63 5.39 1.358 31.134 7.0 96.484
New Orleans 24.136 32.92 26.348 12.952 0.282 0.812 97.45
Detroit 23.39 12.146 4.414 1.338 44.622 8.826 94.736
Dallas 6.588 19.394 25.156 9.666 5.128 16.72 82.652
San Francisco 4.432 10.578 20.564 52.612 0.154 0.962 89.302
Washington 2.76 8.31 10.378 4.9 9.374 24.582 60.304
NY Giants 0.618 2.196 4.368 3.09 4.466 15.26 29.998
Tampa Bay 0.032 0.194 0.48 0.946 0.574 3.446 5.672
Philadelphia 0.01 0.222 0.896 1.448 0.542 5.05 8.168
Chicago 0.028 0.066 0.118 0.05 1.578 6.324 8.164
Carolina 0.014 0.144 0.564 0.844 0.99 4.26 6.816
Seattle 0.012 0.09 0.682 4.774 0.296 2.404 8.258
Atlanta 0.0040 0.044 0.146 0.232 0.192 1.086 1.704
Arizona 0.0 0.026 0.332 3.932 0.066 0.676 5.032
Minnesota 0.0040 0.028 0.042 0.026 0.58 2.41 3.09
St Louis 0.0 0.012 0.122 1.832 0.022 0.182 2.17

Generated: Tue Oct 11 18:10:29 EDT 2011

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