NFL playoff races and other musings

Here are this week’s predictions, with way too many significant figures! As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New England	48.962	32.318	17.76	0.96
Buffalo	30.766	36.566	29.38	3.288
NY Jets	19.996	29.568	44.116	6.32
Miami	0.276	1.548	8.744	89.432

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Baltimore	61.188	24.962	10.444	3.406
Pittsburgh	21.718	38.122	26.772	13.388
Cincinnati	13.826	26.734	38.172	21.268
Cleveland	3.268	10.182	24.612	61.938

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Houston	54.498	39.244	5.786	0.472
Tennessee	43.43	48.288	7.228	1.054
Jacksonville	1.8	9.62	58.936	29.644
Indianapolis	0.272	2.848	28.05	68.83

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Oakland	50.012	33.246	13.14	3.602
San Diego	38.942	36.962	19.254	4.842
Denver	8.99	22.22	42.852	25.938
Kansas City	2.056	7.572	24.754	65.618

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Dallas	48.21	29.35	18.234	4.206
Washington	29.126	35.438	27.352	8.084
NY Giants	21.046	30.052	39.65	9.252
Philadelphia	1.618	5.16	14.764	78.458

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Green Bay	55.412	40.94	3.5	0.148
Detroit	43.288	49.936	6.624	0.152
Chicago	1.278	8.674	75.742	14.306
Minnesota	0.022	0.45	14.134	85.394

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New Orleans	90.19	8.14	1.426	0.244
Tampa Bay	6.118	48.564	31.476	13.842
Carolina	2.812	30.112	37.416	29.66
Atlanta	0.88	13.184	29.682	56.254

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Francisco	72.758	20.818	5.196	1.228
Arizona	20.94	46.7	22.594	9.766
Seattle	3.364	17.956	39.912	38.768
St Louis	2.938	14.526	32.298	50.238

Generated: Tue Oct 04 17:20:56 EDT 2011

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Houston	23.164	15.398	10.53	5.406	16.162	9.664	80.324
Baltimore	19.678	17.674	15.302	8.534	8.194	8.228	77.61
Tennessee	18.3	12.218	8.834	4.078	19.666	11.71	74.806
New England	15.216	15.81	12.676	5.26	11.768	10.73	71.46
Buffalo	6.928	9.312	9.146	5.38	10.398	11.568	52.732
Pittsburgh	4.616	6.382	6.492	4.228	11.75	11.752	45.22
Oakland	3.378	6.898	12.176	27.56	2.148	4.148	56.308
San Diego	3.024	5.496	9.538	20.884	2.522	4.376	45.84
NY Jets	2.472	5.12	6.726	5.678	6.132	9.696	35.824
Cincinnati	2.532	3.734	4.342	3.218	6.864	8.806	29.496
Cleveland	0.278	0.658	1.122	1.21	1.55	3.166	7.984
Denver	0.214	0.808	2.08	5.888	1.04	2.536	12.566
Jacksonville	0.174	0.39	0.596	0.64	1.422	2.624	5.846
Kansas City	0.014	0.06	0.27	1.712	0.134	0.4	2.59
Indianapolis	0.01	0.034	0.072	0.156	0.212	0.42	0.904
Miami	0.0020	0.0080	0.098	0.168	0.038	0.176	0.49

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Green Bay	34.972	13.414	6.028	0.998	26.78	9.592	91.784
Detroit	25.778	11.654	4.912	0.944	36.572	10.434	90.294
New Orleans	21.352	29.864	29.736	9.238	0.996	1.89	93.076
Dallas	6.832	18.682	18.764	3.932	7.584	16.928	72.722
Washington	5.138	11.408	10.24	2.34	11.172	20.084	60.382
NY Giants	3.452	6.882	8.262	2.45	9.364	18.256	48.666
San Francisco	1.822	5.268	13.624	52.044	0.24	0.98	73.978
Tampa Bay	0.278	1.264	2.816	1.76	1.958	6.192	14.268
Chicago	0.224	0.404	0.472	0.178	3.46	7.324	12.062
Arizona	0.044	0.5	2.33	18.066	0.232	1.348	22.52
Carolina	0.044	0.324	1.294	1.15	0.61	2.244	5.666
Philadelphia	0.034	0.238	0.748	0.598	0.552	2.868	5.038
Atlanta	0.024	0.07	0.444	0.342	0.37	1.186	2.436
Seattle	0.0040	0.016	0.16	3.184	0.018	0.254	3.636
St Louis	0.0020	0.012	0.16	2.764	0.0080	0.07	3.016
Minnesota	0.0	0.0	0.01	0.012	0.084	0.35	0.456

Generated: Tue Oct 04 17:20:56 EDT 2011

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