NFL playoff races and other musings

Here are this week’s predictions. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
New England	51.736	40.908	7.356	0.0
NY Jets	46.184	46.966	6.85	0.0
Miami	2.08	12.126	85.71	0.084
Buffalo	0.0	0.0	0.084	99.916

AFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Pittsburgh	63.862	36.114	0.024	0.0
Baltimore	36.138	63.654	0.208	0.0
Cleveland	0.0	0.232	87.014	12.754
Cincinnati	0.0	0.0	12.754	87.246

AFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Indianapolis	53.72	24.61	14.91	6.76
Tennessee	25.748	29.248	23.8	21.204
Houston	11.462	26.62	33.738	28.18
Jacksonville	9.07	19.522	27.552	43.856

AFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
San Diego	72.16	27.11	0.722	0.0080
Kansas City	27.58	69.76	2.616	0.044
Oakland	0.258	3.004	86.25	10.488
Denver	0.0020	0.126	10.412	89.46

NFC EAST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Philadelphia	48.706	47.626	3.328	0.34
NY Giants	50.052	43.144	6.632	0.172
Washington	1.238	8.092	70.634	20.036
Dallas	0.0040	1.138	19.406	79.452

NFC NORTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Green Bay	65.422	34.522	0.056	0.0
Chicago	34.574	63.862	1.564	0.0
Minnesota	0.0040	1.616	96.126	2.254
Detroit	0.0	0.0	2.254	97.746

NFC SOUTH

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Atlanta	69.32	24.392	6.288	0.0
New Orleans	25.836	55.298	18.866	0.0
Tampa Bay	4.844	20.31	74.846	0.0
Carolina	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0

NFC WEST

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Seattle	51.148	30.124	17.878	0.85
San Francisco	23.684	35.008	33.376	7.932
St Louis	24.66	30.886	32.46	11.994
Arizona	0.508	3.982	16.286	79.224

Generated: Tue Nov 30 19:22:27 EST 2010

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
New England	39.384	11.916	0.424	0.012	32.406	9.14	93.282
Pittsburgh	28.834	30.77	3.944	0.314	17.336	15.514	96.712
NY Jets	18.972	24.002	3.156	0.054	21.796	22.974	90.954
Baltimore	12.072	16.922	6.53	0.614	23.13	25.256	84.524
San Diego	0.564	12.792	56.342	2.462	0.714	6.77	79.644
Kansas City	0.16	2.052	20.75	4.618	1.512	8.97	38.062
Indianapolis	0.0	0.658	6.34	46.722	0.014	0.352	54.086
Miami	0.01	0.834	1.128	0.108	3.056	10.362	15.498
Tennessee	0.0	0.0	0.814	24.934	0.0	0.028	25.776
Houston	0.0020	0.014	0.262	11.184	0.014	0.356	11.832
Jacksonville	0.0020	0.036	0.188	8.844	0.022	0.224	9.316
Oakland	0.0	0.0040	0.122	0.132	0.0	0.032	0.29
Denver	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0020	0.0	0.0	0.0020
Cleveland	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.022	0.022
Buffalo	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Cincinnati	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
Atlanta	57.88	8.354	3.076	0.01	20.42	5.182	94.922
New Orleans	21.004	4.336	0.494	0.0020	47.346	14.924	88.106
Green Bay	5.842	41.658	17.598	0.324	4.314	13.556	83.292
NY Giants	5.132	17.338	27.512	0.07	3.606	13.276	66.934
Chicago	4.294	18.074	12.06	0.146	7.294	20.42	62.288
Philadelphia	3.588	8.14	36.386	0.592	2.828	7.898	59.432
Tampa Bay	2.254	1.894	0.68	0.016	14.124	23.61	42.578
Seattle	0.0060	0.126	1.054	49.962	0.0020	0.014	51.164
St Louis	0.0	0.0	0.096	24.564	0.0	0.0	24.66
San Francisco	0.0	0.0	0.02	23.664	0.0	0.0	23.684
Washington	0.0	0.08	1.018	0.14	0.05	0.826	2.114
Arizona	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.508	0.0	0.0	0.508
Minnesota	0.0	0.0	0.0040	0.0	0.016	0.292	0.312
Dallas	0.0	0.0	0.0020	0.0020	0.0	0.0020	0.0060
Detroit	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Carolina	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Generated: Tue Nov 30 19:22:27 EST 2010

This entry was posted on Tuesday, November 30th, 2010 at 8:31 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.