Here are this week’s predictions. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.
Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division
AFC EAST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
NY Jets | 47.432 | 33.78 | 18.784 | 0.0040 |
New England | 40.096 | 37.126 | 22.774 | 0.0040 |
Miami | 12.472 | 29.094 | 58.406 | 0.028 |
Buffalo | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.036 | 99.964 |
AFC NORTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Pittsburgh | 66.838 | 32.584 | 0.57 | 0.0080 |
Baltimore | 33.066 | 63.938 | 2.864 | 0.132 |
Cleveland | 0.088 | 3.134 | 72.738 | 24.04 |
Cincinnati | 0.0080 | 0.344 | 23.828 | 75.82 |
AFC SOUTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Tennessee | 51.796 | 34.648 | 10.08 | 3.476 |
Indianapolis | 42.884 | 41.81 | 12.04 | 3.266 |
Houston | 2.986 | 12.066 | 40.648 | 44.3 |
Jacksonville | 2.334 | 11.476 | 37.232 | 48.958 |
AFC WEST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
San Diego | 56.924 | 33.43 | 8.304 | 1.342 |
Kansas City | 38.052 | 48.946 | 11.378 | 1.624 |
Oakland | 4.256 | 14.494 | 63.152 | 18.098 |
Denver | 0.768 | 3.13 | 17.166 | 78.936 |
NFC EAST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
NY Giants | 54.456 | 40.948 | 4.362 | 0.234 |
Philadelphia | 44.758 | 51.246 | 3.568 | 0.428 |
Washington | 0.722 | 6.082 | 65.648 | 27.548 |
Dallas | 0.064 | 1.724 | 26.422 | 71.79 |
NFC NORTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Green Bay | 79.986 | 18.408 | 1.594 | 0.012 |
Chicago | 18.764 | 67.376 | 13.73 | 0.13 |
Minnesota | 1.248 | 14.024 | 77.454 | 7.274 |
Detroit | 0.0020 | 0.192 | 7.222 | 92.584 |
NFC SOUTH
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Atlanta | 68.77 | 23.752 | 7.478 | 0.0 |
New Orleans | 24.334 | 50.968 | 24.698 | 0.0 |
Tampa Bay | 6.896 | 25.28 | 67.822 | 0.0020 |
Carolina | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0020 | 99.998 |
NFC WEST
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
Seattle | 46.464 | 33.912 | 17.664 | 1.96 |
San Francisco | 36.312 | 35.332 | 19.616 | 8.74 |
St Louis | 15.32 | 22.34 | 36.24 | 26.1 |
Arizona | 1.904 | 8.416 | 26.48 | 63.2 |
Generated: Wed Nov 17 22:38:30 EST 2010
AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
Pittsburgh | 34.692 | 23.048 | 7.35 | 1.748 | 16.034 | 9.576 | 92.448 |
New England | 24.692 | 11.154 | 3.476 | 0.774 | 26.048 | 12.874 | 79.018 |
NY Jets | 17.608 | 20.224 | 7.62 | 1.98 | 15.042 | 16.34 | 78.814 |
Baltimore | 13.042 | 12.258 | 6.05 | 1.716 | 22.306 | 18.198 | 73.57 |
Indianapolis | 4.76 | 8.516 | 14.868 | 14.74 | 3.122 | 6.658 | 52.664 |
San Diego | 2.054 | 10.892 | 24.042 | 19.936 | 2.104 | 6.098 | 65.126 |
Miami | 1.964 | 6.468 | 3.204 | 0.836 | 12.352 | 19.57 | 44.394 |
Tennessee | 0.58 | 3.49 | 16.338 | 31.388 | 0.282 | 1.526 | 53.604 |
Kansas City | 0.538 | 3.48 | 15.372 | 18.662 | 1.706 | 5.904 | 45.662 |
Oakland | 0.042 | 0.242 | 0.766 | 3.206 | 0.226 | 0.91 | 5.392 |
Houston | 0.018 | 0.13 | 0.492 | 2.346 | 0.43 | 1.13 | 4.546 |
Jacksonville | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.292 | 1.952 | 0.186 | 0.67 | 3.19 |
Cleveland | 0.0 | 0.016 | 0.034 | 0.038 | 0.16 | 0.52 | 0.768 |
Denver | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.094 | 0.674 | 0.0 | 0.014 | 0.782 |
Cincinnati | 0.0 | 0.0020 | 0.0020 | 0.0040 | 0.0020 | 0.012 | 0.022 |
Buffalo | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
Atlanta | 28.07 | 23.364 | 16.766 | 0.57 | 11.198 | 10.704 | 90.672 |
Green Bay | 25.672 | 24.48 | 27.898 | 1.936 | 4.434 | 4.944 | 89.364 |
NY Giants | 19.884 | 18.856 | 15.604 | 0.112 | 14.498 | 15.066 | 84.02 |
Philadelphia | 13.818 | 16.004 | 14.698 | 0.238 | 17.126 | 16.046 | 77.93 |
New Orleans | 9.52 | 9.586 | 5.052 | 0.176 | 33.732 | 19.884 | 77.95 |
Tampa Bay | 1.736 | 2.804 | 2.292 | 0.064 | 13.794 | 19.58 | 40.27 |
Chicago | 1.172 | 4.082 | 12.398 | 1.112 | 3.972 | 9.214 | 31.95 |
Seattle | 0.09 | 0.45 | 2.714 | 43.21 | 0.028 | 0.19 | 46.682 |
Washington | 0.026 | 0.198 | 0.448 | 0.05 | 0.67 | 2.244 | 3.636 |
San Francisco | 0.0 | 0.0080 | 0.718 | 35.586 | 0.0060 | 0.026 | 36.344 |
Minnesota | 0.012 | 0.142 | 0.966 | 0.128 | 0.478 | 1.806 | 3.532 |
St Louis | 0.0 | 0.026 | 0.392 | 14.902 | 0.0060 | 0.066 | 15.392 |
Arizona | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0040 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 0.0040 | 1.908 |
Dallas | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.05 | 0.014 | 0.058 | 0.226 | 0.348 |
Detroit | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0020 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0020 |
Carolina | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Generated: Wed Nov 17 22:38:30 EST 2010
Interesting that the Bears are #2 in the NFC north. I would guess that’s due to their harder strength of schedule when compared to the Packers.
Why not a wildcard ranking for each conference?
Hi Sean —
I use the the team efficiencies published by AdvancedNFLStats.com. He gives the Packers a 0.70 generic win percentage, compared to a value of 0.50 for the Bears. When I simulate the season, the Packers end up with around 11 wins compared to the Bears 9 wins.
If you look at the odds for the 5th and 6th seeds, that represents the wild card race. So looking at the Bears, they have about a 32% chance of making the playoffs. This breaks down to a 19% chance of winning the division, and a 13% chance of winning the WC.
Whoops, I forgot that Chicago played Thursday night. There playoffs odd changed to:
total = division + WC
48 = 29 + 19
I can’t wrap my head around the idea that NYJ is much more likely to win AFC East than NE, but, at the same time, NE has a better chance of making the playoffs and to end up number one in AFC. How is that possible?
Big up for running this blog, by the way.
Hi Jussi —
First of all, this comment is under week 10. Things have changed a bit since there.
The Jets have a better team efficiency than New England, so they are expected to have more wins than NE, and thus win the division.
The overall odds of making the playoffs for the two teams were very similar after week 10. If the difference is statistically different, it most likely relates to WC tiebreakers.
Finally, the reason that the Pats have better odds of getting the number 1 seed is that they have already beat Pittsburgh, and head-to-head is the first tiebreaker. The Jets have not yet played Pittsburgh, but Pittsburgh is favored to win that game, so the program projects that Pittsburgh would win a tiebreaker with the Jets.