2010 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 10

Here are this week’s predictions. As always, you can gain more insight into the playoff races by using my software. Individual game predictions that are the basis of the playoff race simulations are based on the team efficiency ratings at AdvancedNFLStats.

Division Finish

Percent probability of team finishing in each place within the division

AFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Jets 47.432 33.78 18.784 0.0040
New England 40.096 37.126 22.774 0.0040
Miami 12.472 29.094 58.406 0.028
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.036 99.964

AFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 66.838 32.584 0.57 0.0080
Baltimore 33.066 63.938 2.864 0.132
Cleveland 0.088 3.134 72.738 24.04
Cincinnati 0.0080 0.344 23.828 75.82

AFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Tennessee 51.796 34.648 10.08 3.476
Indianapolis 42.884 41.81 12.04 3.266
Houston 2.986 12.066 40.648 44.3
Jacksonville 2.334 11.476 37.232 48.958

AFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
San Diego 56.924 33.43 8.304 1.342
Kansas City 38.052 48.946 11.378 1.624
Oakland 4.256 14.494 63.152 18.098
Denver 0.768 3.13 17.166 78.936

NFC EAST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 54.456 40.948 4.362 0.234
Philadelphia 44.758 51.246 3.568 0.428
Washington 0.722 6.082 65.648 27.548
Dallas 0.064 1.724 26.422 71.79

NFC NORTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Green Bay 79.986 18.408 1.594 0.012
Chicago 18.764 67.376 13.73 0.13
Minnesota 1.248 14.024 77.454 7.274
Detroit 0.0020 0.192 7.222 92.584

NFC SOUTH

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Atlanta 68.77 23.752 7.478 0.0
New Orleans 24.334 50.968 24.698 0.0
Tampa Bay 6.896 25.28 67.822 0.0020
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0020 99.998

NFC WEST

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Seattle 46.464 33.912 17.664 1.96
San Francisco 36.312 35.332 19.616 8.74
St Louis 15.32 22.34 36.24 26.1
Arizona 1.904 8.416 26.48 63.2

Generated: Wed Nov 17 22:38:30 EST 2010

Playoff Seedings

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Pittsburgh 34.692 23.048 7.35 1.748 16.034 9.576 92.448
New England 24.692 11.154 3.476 0.774 26.048 12.874 79.018
NY Jets 17.608 20.224 7.62 1.98 15.042 16.34 78.814
Baltimore 13.042 12.258 6.05 1.716 22.306 18.198 73.57
Indianapolis 4.76 8.516 14.868 14.74 3.122 6.658 52.664
San Diego 2.054 10.892 24.042 19.936 2.104 6.098 65.126
Miami 1.964 6.468 3.204 0.836 12.352 19.57 44.394
Tennessee 0.58 3.49 16.338 31.388 0.282 1.526 53.604
Kansas City 0.538 3.48 15.372 18.662 1.706 5.904 45.662
Oakland 0.042 0.242 0.766 3.206 0.226 0.91 5.392
Houston 0.018 0.13 0.492 2.346 0.43 1.13 4.546
Jacksonville 0.01 0.08 0.292 1.952 0.186 0.67 3.19
Cleveland 0.0 0.016 0.034 0.038 0.16 0.52 0.768
Denver 0.0 0.0 0.094 0.674 0.0 0.014 0.782
Cincinnati 0.0 0.0020 0.0020 0.0040 0.0020 0.012 0.022
Buffalo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Atlanta 28.07 23.364 16.766 0.57 11.198 10.704 90.672
Green Bay 25.672 24.48 27.898 1.936 4.434 4.944 89.364
NY Giants 19.884 18.856 15.604 0.112 14.498 15.066 84.02
Philadelphia 13.818 16.004 14.698 0.238 17.126 16.046 77.93
New Orleans 9.52 9.586 5.052 0.176 33.732 19.884 77.95
Tampa Bay 1.736 2.804 2.292 0.064 13.794 19.58 40.27
Chicago 1.172 4.082 12.398 1.112 3.972 9.214 31.95
Seattle 0.09 0.45 2.714 43.21 0.028 0.19 46.682
Washington 0.026 0.198 0.448 0.05 0.67 2.244 3.636
San Francisco 0.0 0.0080 0.718 35.586 0.0060 0.026 36.344
Minnesota 0.012 0.142 0.966 0.128 0.478 1.806 3.532
St Louis 0.0 0.026 0.392 14.902 0.0060 0.066 15.392
Arizona 0.0 0.0 0.0040 1.9 0.0 0.0040 1.908
Dallas 0.0 0.0 0.05 0.014 0.058 0.226 0.348
Detroit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0020 0.0 0.0 0.0020
Carolina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Generated: Wed Nov 17 22:38:30 EST 2010

5 Responses to “2010 NFL Playoff Predictions after Week 10”

  1. Sean says:

    Interesting that the Bears are #2 in the NFC north. I would guess that’s due to their harder strength of schedule when compared to the Packers.

    Why not a wildcard ranking for each conference?

  2. admin says:

    Hi Sean —

    I use the the team efficiencies published by AdvancedNFLStats.com. He gives the Packers a 0.70 generic win percentage, compared to a value of 0.50 for the Bears. When I simulate the season, the Packers end up with around 11 wins compared to the Bears 9 wins.

    If you look at the odds for the 5th and 6th seeds, that represents the wild card race. So looking at the Bears, they have about a 32% chance of making the playoffs. This breaks down to a 19% chance of winning the division, and a 13% chance of winning the WC.

  3. admin says:

    Whoops, I forgot that Chicago played Thursday night. There playoffs odd changed to:

    total = division + WC

    48 = 29 + 19

  4. Jussi says:

    I can’t wrap my head around the idea that NYJ is much more likely to win AFC East than NE, but, at the same time, NE has a better chance of making the playoffs and to end up number one in AFC. How is that possible?

    Big up for running this blog, by the way.

  5. admin says:

    Hi Jussi —

    First of all, this comment is under week 10. Things have changed a bit since there.

    The Jets have a better team efficiency than New England, so they are expected to have more wins than NE, and thus win the division.

    The overall odds of making the playoffs for the two teams were very similar after week 10. If the difference is statistically different, it most likely relates to WC tiebreakers.

    Finally, the reason that the Pats have better odds of getting the number 1 seed is that they have already beat Pittsburgh, and head-to-head is the first tiebreaker. The Jets have not yet played Pittsburgh, but Pittsburgh is favored to win that game, so the program projects that Pittsburgh would win a tiebreaker with the Jets.

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