First of all, this comment is under week 10. Things have changed a bit since there.

The Jets have a better team efficiency than New England, so they are expected to have more wins than NE, and thus win the division.

The overall odds of making the playoffs for the two teams were very similar after week 10. If the difference is statistically different, it most likely relates to WC tiebreakers.

Finally, the reason that the Pats have better odds of getting the number 1 seed is that they have already beat Pittsburgh, and head-to-head is the first tiebreaker. The Jets have not yet played Pittsburgh, but Pittsburgh is favored to win that game, so the program projects that Pittsburgh would win a tiebreaker with the Jets.

]]>Big up for running this blog, by the way.

]]>total = division + WC

48 = 29 + 19

]]>I use the the team efficiencies published by AdvancedNFLStats.com. He gives the Packers a 0.70 generic win percentage, compared to a value of 0.50 for the Bears. When I simulate the season, the Packers end up with around 11 wins compared to the Bears 9 wins.

If you look at the odds for the 5th and 6th seeds, that represents the wild card race. So looking at the Bears, they have about a 32% chance of making the playoffs. This breaks down to a 19% chance of winning the division, and a 13% chance of winning the WC.

]]>Why not a wildcard ranking for each conference?

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